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Tournament & Field 🏆

We’ve reached the second week of the PGA playoffs and the penultimate event of the season as the top 50 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings have qualified and advanced to the BMW Championship which will be held at Olympia Fields Country Club, just south of Chicago, Illinois. As you would expect, this is a stacked field that features 30 of the top 35 ranked golfers in the world. Just like last week, there will be no cut so, pending a late withdrawal or disqualification, every golfer will play all four rounds.

After this playoff event, only the top 30 golfers in the FEC standings will survive and become eligible to compete in the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club next week. Whoever is fortunate enough to land atop the FEC standings after that will receive a massive $18 million payday. But don’t shed a tear for whoever finishes 30th next week -- they’ll still earn a cool half-million check. So, golfers will have several million reasons to play well this week in order to qualify and advance into the TOUR Championship. Keep in mind that next week’s championship event will operate under a seeded structure with significant opening scoring advantages awarded to the higher-ranked golfers in the FedEx Cup standings. This ensures that even the top golfers in the field that are in no danger of falling out of the top 30 this week will want to retain their high FEC ranking. No one will simply aim to “coast” through this event!

FedEx Cup Standings

The Course Preview ⛳

Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)

Par 70 | 7,333 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Mix

The BMW Championship was last hosted at Olympia Fields in 2020 but, before that year, it had not been featured on the PGA Tour since the 2003 U.S. Open, so course history ranges from slim to none for every golfer in this week’s field. This is a long Par 70 that extends over 7,300 yards and features four Par 3s, two Par 5s, and twelve Par 4s. One of the two Par 5s resides on the opening hole and is a 624-yard monster. A couple of the Par 3s will be no joke either. The Par 3-eighth hole is listed at over 250 yards and may even play closer to 280. Golfers will also take on eight Par 4 holes that will play near, or well over, 450 yards. That includes the finishing 18th hole, a mammoth Par 4 that will extend over 500 yards.

The tree-lined fairways at Olympia Fields are narrow and difficult to hit. Many golfers will struggle to attain even a 50% fairway hit percentage. Surrounding the fairways will be some penalizing rough that should be cut between three and four inches. There are 91 bunkers scattered throughout the property and water will come into play on eight of the 18 holes. The bentgrass/poa mixed green complexes are small, averaging just over 5,200 square feet, and they’ll possess plenty of undulation, back-to-front slope, and will be guarded by greenside bunkers. To further add onto this course’s challenging layout is the fact that it sits about 30 miles south of Chicago… ya know, the Windy City. We’ll dive into the forecast in the section below, but rest assured that golfers will be contending with some windy conditions this week, especially in Thursday’s opening round. When the BMW Championship was played here in 2020, only five golfers finished the week under par as Jon Rahm beat Dustin Johnson in a playoff after both finished with a 72-hole tournament score of 4-under. So, a single-digit winning score under par is certainly a likelihood this go-'round.

So that brings us to outlining the type of golfers that should have success at a difficult track like Olympia Fields. Players who can shorten this course with distance, while also being fairly accurate, will gain a big leg up on the competition. Iron play is crucial like it is any other week but the main approach distances golfers will be challenged with will come from the 175-200 and 200+ yard ranges. The ability to go low, or grind out pars, on the twelve Par 4s will be a necessity as will be avoiding the crooked numbers. So go ahead and add Par 4 scoring and bogey avoidance to the list of key metrics to target. This should be a battle and a true test for the world’s best golfers so buckle in and best of luck in your DFS and betting ventures!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday AM: Sustained winds in the 15 mph range with some nasty gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Rain is also a high possibility in the morning hours.

Thursday PM: Sustained winds will still hover around 15 mph but gusts drop a bit, but still problematic around 20-25 mph. No significant rain chances.

Friday AM: Much calmer conditions than Thursday. Winds should stay mostly in the single digits with gusts only reaching 15 mph around midday.

Friday PM: Similar outlook to Friday morning.

Weekend: Both days look fairly similar. Sustained winds around 10 mph with periodic gusts of 15-25 mph.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Remember, this is a condensed field and there is no cut to contend with, so weather plays less of a factor. With that said the golfers who draw the earliest tee times on Thursday may get stuck with the short end of the stick thanks to those brutal 30-40 mph wind gusts. However, it also would not surprise me if we see tee times pushed back a bit due to the threat of some fairly heavy rain on Thursday morning. Either way, the later Thursday tee times could be considered “safer” as of now, but I wouldn’t be ruling out any of the early Thursday golfers strictly due to the weather forecast.

BMW Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity from 175+ Yards) | 15%

6. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

BMW Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.