By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏈

Welcome back! We’ll be blessed with college football action for the next five consecutive days beginning with a busy 11-game Thursday slate! For anyone who is picking up CFB DFS for the first time, feel free to catch some strategic tips that were discussed at the beginning of last week’s “week zero” CFB newsletter. Even with it being around midday at the time of this writing, we are still missing a ton of info from the major sportsbooks regarding point spreads and over/unders for the majority of this evening’s games. Nonetheless, we can dig in deep and look to find some favorable DFS plays for this slate (Update: I was able to track down some lines/totals for most of today’s games and LineStar has updated some Vegas info as well).

As a reminder, due to major discrepancies in game selection, these CFB newsletters are geared toward the DraftKings main slate. Today’s FanDuel CFB main slate only features four games, but we’ll surely be discussing several players from mutually shared games that are on both the DK and FD slates. Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Quarterbacks to Consider

QB options at various price points.

John Rhys Plumlee, UCF | $10,600 | vs. KENT

We won’t always start off these newsletters spotlighting the most expensive QB on the slate, but it makes sense to give John Rhys Plumlee some recognition on this slate. Even when the remaining Thursday games eventually receive spreads and over/unders, we can safely assume that UCF will still lead all teams today with a 45.3-point implied total. Kent State will possess one of the least-experienced defenses in the FBS as they return just 31% of defensive production from last season, ranking 130th in the FBS (per ESPN). JRP enters his senior season on the heels of an impressive, albeit inconsistent, 2022 campaign where he put his dual-threat capability on full display. He only averaged 198.9 passing YPG in 2022 but did complete 63.0% of his attempts. The real draw is what he can do on the ground after racking up 862 rushing yards (66.3 YPG) and 11 rushing TDs a season ago. Against lesser competition, JRP should have no problems stuffing the stat sheet against Kent State -- as we saw in his week three performance against FAU last season where UCF won by a score of 40-14, his ceiling is 300+ yards passing, 100+ yards rushing, and 3+ total TDs. It’s a big commitment dropping $10,600 on a player but, with John Rhys Plumlee’s ability to rack up so much rushing production on top of what he does passing the ball, it’s a pricey investment that could pay off.

Darren Grainger, GAST | $7,400 | vs. URI

Grainger is another dual-threat QB who should be able to show out in this advantageous week one match-up against an inferior FCS opponent. He averaged a respectable 8.2 YPA passing the ball last season while posting 13.7 rush attempts/gm for 61.2 YPG. He posted a very strong floor for much of the season, scoring at least 17.74 DKFP in 10-of-12 games with a ceiling of 38.12 DKFP. There are no widely available lines available for this game but some sportsbooks are pinning this match-up with a 58.0 over/under with Georgia State being -14.5 favorites. On a slate without any huge shootouts expected, that over/under may end up being the highest on the day and the spread would indicate a 36.3-point implied total for GAST. At a reasonable $7,400 salary, Grainger provides DFS lineups with some nice safety and quality upside today.

Kasim Hill, URI | $5,400 | @ GAST

Flipping over to Grainger’s counterpart, we have a cheaply-priced Kasim Hill who will be worth consideration as an affordable QB2 (Super Flex). Hill brings ample collegiate experience to the table as he enters his senior season and he’s yet another QB who can do some damage both through the air and on the ground. Hill averaged 7.9 YPA passing in 2022 with a 17:9 TD:INT ratio and he tacked on an additional seven TDs running the ball. Rhode Island is outmatched against an FBS opponent but, at the same time, a +14.5 point spread is not exactly massive when it comes to college football. If URI hopes to win this game, Kasim Hill will have to have a big day and be the offense’s focal point. URI holds a fairly modest 21.75-point implied total but they could easily outperform expectations as they go up against an inexperienced Georgia State defense that returns just 30% of its 2022 production (ranks 132nd in FBS, via ESPN). A 20 DKFP score is certainly attainable for Hill today, which we’d happily take at this $5,400 price point.

Other QBs to Consider

Braylon Braxton, TLSA | $9,500 | vs. ARK-P

Brennan Armstrong, NCST | $8,900 | @ UCONN

Mitch Griffis, WAKE | $8,300 | vs. ELON

Wide Receivers to Consider

WR options at various price points.

Luther Burden III, MIZZ | $6,800 | vs. SDU

There are a massive amount of risky WR plays near the top of DFS pricing on this slate but Burden does stand out as a guy we can feel fairly comfortable with in lineups today. Burden was a massive ‘get’ for Mizzou in the 2022 recruiting cycle -- he was a 5-star prospect who ranked as the 14th overall recruit in the country and the 2nd highest-ranked WR (via 247). He put his talent on display at times last season but, much like WRs do in the NFL, he should be poised for a potential breakout season in year two. Mizzou should have no issues moving the ball against their FCS opponent South Dakota and, after scanning for lines for this game (which aren’t widely available), I’ve found Mizzou to be a huge -29 point favorite with a 44-point over/under which works out to a 36.5-point implied total for the Tigers. I’m not sure if we can trust a QB to stack with Burden since Mizzou is listing Brady Cook and Sam Horn as co-starters, but he should see plenty of attention no matter who is under center during this game.

Jahmal Banks, WAKE | $6,500 | vs. ELON

There are some big opportunities for returning Wake Forest WRs to step into bigger roles this season. They lost their 2022 receiving leader, AT Perry, to the NFL Draft (Saints) following his 1,096-yard, 11 TD season. Their second-leading receiver from last season, Donavon Greene, will also miss the majority of the season due to a knee injury. That brings Jahmal Banksto the forefront of this Wake Forest receiving unit following a ‘22 season where he caught 70% of his targets for 636 yards (ranked 3rd on the team) for nine TDs. The Demon Deacons hold a 36.8-point implied total and should move the ball with ease against FCS Elon.

WRs Taylor Morin ($6,200) and Ke’Shawn Williams ($5,300) are the other Wake Forest receivers who should have an expanded role this season.

Keyon Lesane, NCST | $5,000 | @ UCONN

Lesane will look to lead an NC State WR corps that lost ‘22 receiving leader, Thayer Thomas, to the NFL (Vikings), their second-leading receiver, Devin Carter, to the transfer portal (WVU), and their fourth-leading receiver, Darryl Jones, to graduation. Lesane only caught 31 passes for 342 yards last year but his target share should see a major uptick in 2023 and NC State brings a solid 30.3-point implied team total to the table as -14.0 point favorites on the road at UCONN. Lesane should also benefit from improved quarterback play with former Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong now at the helm for the Wolfpack.

Robert Lewis, GAST | $4,000 | vs. URI

Lewis looks like a strong value play today following the departure of Georgia State’s leading receiver from a year ago, Jamari Thrash, who ranked 13th in the country with 1,122 yards. Despite missing four of his final five games due to injury last year, Robert Lewis still ended the season as Georgia State’s second-leading receiver with 379 yards. That may not be a huge yardage total, but it does speak to how much of a target magnet Jamari Thrash was. Lewis still hauled in six touchdowns and averaged a healthy 17.2 yards per reception, so he has the big play upside that we look for out of cheaper WR plays, and his target share should be strong as well. He should have a great chance to return value on this $4,000 price tag.

Isaiah Wooden, SOUT | $3,900 | @ ASU

This is a bit of a riskier cheap WR play as FCS Southern Utah steps in as huge +31-point underdogs on the road against an FBS opponent in Arizona State. But that should just lead to a pass-heavy game script which should benefit Isaiah Wooden’s outlook. Wooden logged five 100+ yard receiving games in 2022 and he also mixes in as a runner out of the backfield and as a kick returner. He’s a do-it-all guy who should be force-fed some targets and touches against an Arizona State defense that ranked 78th in the FBS in pass defense last season and returns just 45% of defensive production (ranks 117th, per ESPN).

Other WRs to Consider

Javon Baker, UCF | $8,000 | vs. KENT

Kobe Hudson, UCF | $7,700 | vs. KENT

Ricky Pearsall, UF | $6,600 | @ UTAH

Kahtero Summers, URI | $3,900 | @ GAST

Running Backs to Consider

RB options at various price points.

Keshawn King, WMU | $7,500 | vs. STF-P

Western Michigan lost their back-to-back 1,000-yard rusher Sean Taylor to the transfer portal (Minnesota), which puts Keshawn King, a transfer over from Va Tech, atop the depth chart. King averaged a respectable 4.9 YPC in his career with the Hokies and will face softer defenses in the MAC. WMU was a run-oriented offense in 2022, ranking 36th in the FBS in run play percentage, and they should continue to focus on the ground game against an inferior opponent. St. Francis is not a massive underdog in this game, sitting at +14.5 on the point spread. So, if we don’t see a complete blowout, King should be involved for all four quarters and this offense should be able to find the endzone based on their 34.3-point implied team total.

Jermaine Brown Jr., UAB | $6,200 | vs. NCA&T

UAB faces the tall task of replacing RB DeWayne McBride (NFL) who was the second-leading rusher in the entire FBS in 2022 with 1,746 yards -- McBride also tied for 3rd in rushing TDs with 19. Behind McBride, Jermaine Brown Jr. tallied a very respectable 948 yards (5.7 YPC) with eight touchdowns. He was also used more as a receiver than McBride was, catching 19 passes for 120 yards. UAB was the 9th most run-heavy offense in the FBS last season and Brown should find plenty of room to run against North Carolina A&T. UAB is a heavy -21 favorite with a 33.8-point implied team total.

Cam Skattebo, ASU | $5,900 | vs. SOUT

Skattebo, a transfer from FCS Sacramento State, was awarded the Big Sky Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2022 after leading the conference with 1,382 yards rushing while punching in seven TDs and averaging 7.0 YPC. He also worked consistently as a receiver out of the backfield, catching 31 passes for 371 yards (12.0 YPR) and three additional touchdowns. He likely won’t be featured as heavily at Arizona State this season, but a soft week one match-up against Southern Utah could lead to a big day for Skattebo with ASU stepping in as major -31 point home favorites. 100+ yards and a touchdown (or two) should be an attainable outcome here.

RJ Harvey, UCF | $5,200 | vs. KENT

Harvey will have to compete with QB John Rhys Plumlee for rushing production, but he is poised to step into a larger role following the departure of UCF’s lead RB Isaiah Bowser to the NFL. Harvey impressed with a 6.7 YPC average in 2022 while racking up 796 yards and five TDs on 118 carries. He’s a capable receiver as well and should have a strong week one performance in a potent UCF offense that owns a slate-best 45.3-point implied team total.

Marcus Carroll, GAST | $4,500 | vs. URI

Similar to the aforementioned RJ Harvey, Marcus Carroll will lose out on some potential rushing work due to QB Darren Grainger’s rushing ability. However, Carroll will see an increase in touches with Georgia State’s lead RB from a season ago, Tucker Gregg, gone due to graduating. RB Jamyest Williams (65 CAR, 447 yards in 2022) is also no longer with the team which leaves Carroll as the clear-cut No. 1 RB. Carroll rumbled for 622 yards on 127 carries (4.9 YPC) in 2022 while scoring six TDs. Georgia State (-17.5) should be expected to control this game and Carroll is simply too cheap for a guy who has 20+ touch potential against a lesser opponent.

Other RBs to Consider

Cody Schrader, MIZZ | $7,000 | vs. SDU

Ja’Quinden Jackson, UTAH | $6,500 | vs. UF

Justice Ellison, WAKE | $5,700 | vs. ELON

Jordan Ford, TLSA | $5,300 | vs. ARK-P

Braylin Presley, TLSA | $4,600 | vs. ARK-P

That will do it for this week’s CFB DFS rundown! We’ll get a better grasp on things as the season progresses but, for now, let’s all just rejoice in the fact that football is back in full swing! Best of luck!