On to Daytona!
Scoring Breakdown
At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:
Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 160 laps will be run this week, and 40 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).
Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.
Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 125 laps should run under the green flag for 56.25 possible DK points).
Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.
Lineup Construction 🏗
Any weekly reader should understand how to attack a superspeedway at this point in the season and in the tenure of the Pitstop. Here we go for those who are new or looking for a refresher. Traditionally, Daytona and Talladega were tracks that produced dangerously high speeds. Hence, NASCAR had to devise a device (a restrictor plate) to limit the maximum speed the cars could achieve artificially. By doing so, every car effectively had the same top speed, so they needed to draft in massive packs to maintain their high speeds. While the restrictor plates are a thing of the past, the races with the new rules package have played out similarly.
Since most of the field will be racing inches apart, any minor hiccup can cause a massive chain reaction crash known as a “Big One”. This crash is more or less inevitable, more so at Daytona than Talladega, but still abnormally prevalent. If we go into the race thinking a "Big One” is guaranteed, we will need to construct lineups that limit the downside if one of our drivers is caught up in the crash and maximize the upside if our drivers survive. The best way to achieve that goal is to backload our lineups. There will be drivers that post massive negative scores on Saturday night, and we are going to want to avoid them at all costs.
Okay, now that we have a general idea of what we want to do this weekend, let’s dive in a little further. Dominators are obnoxiously rare. We get one every two years, so don’t even try to roster one. Drivers starting in the top 10 are a risky proposition. Since implementing the new rules package last February, we are averaging one driver starting in the top 10 and finishing in the perfect lineup. While I would fade the entire top 5, rostering one top 10 driver in tournament/qualifier lineups will be advantageous, but this is a high risk strategy that I would avoid in cash. Drivers starting in the teens are kind in no man’s land. Their ceiling is hampered by their limited place differential potential, but their floor is still catastrophically low. Again I would suggest maybe 1 driver starting 11-20 in tournaments but avoiding them in cash. Drivers starting 20+ is where we are going to focus most of our attention. The magic starting position used to be 24th at Daytona, but anyone starting 20th or worse is fair game in both cash and tournaments. Depending on the contest type, I would suggest anywhere between 4-6 drivers starting in this range. Don’t be afraid to roll out a lineup with six drivers starting 30th or worse in cash; it will be a popular build.
Don’t be afraid to leave money on the table this weekend. When backloading lineups, we will inevitably end up with a bunch of low-priced drivers that we would never put in the same lineup in any other track. The perfect lineup for this year’s Daytona 500 only cost $37,000. While that is an extreme example, leaving anywhere between $5,000-$10,000 on the table is normal for a superspeedway.
Also do not roster any driver more than 50% this weekend because races at Daytona have around a 40% incident rate. Rostering any driver more than 50% opens you up to significantly more downside. If you can stomach the risk, go for it, but my recommended cap is 50%
After looking at the last three races in Atlanta, I did not include those races in my data for this race. While drafting is prevalent in new Atlanta, dominators exist, and there is a much lower incidence rate.
Lineup Foundation Targets
Michael McDowell ($7,800 DK, $6,200 FD)
McDowell had car issues during qualifying and will start dead last (39th) on Saturday night. The former Daytona 500 winner has 5 top 10 finishes in his last ten superspeedway races and has nowhere to go but up this weekend. McDowell has had a fantastic season so far, and this is one of his best tracks on the circuit, so I expect him to be a very popular option. I would be on the lookout for some news about McDowell on race day. However, he believes there is something broken on his car and they are still petitioning NASCAR to let them fix it before the race. While we love the fact that he starts last, if he is forced to start the race with a damaged car, he will be far less useful to us.