Anytime Touchdown Report Vegas & LineStar odds to score a touchdownUpdated {{readableTime}}

Every column here feeds one question: how likely is this player to score a touchdown today? The two odds columns are the answer; everything else is the evidence behind it.

The two odds columns

Vegas

The sportsbook anytime-touchdown price, converted to an implied percentage and averaged across books. This is the market's opinion.

LineStar

Our own model's probability, built from the columns to the right rather than from the odds. Where it disagrees with Vegas is where the value is.

Diff

LineStar minus Vegas. Positive means we're higher on the player than the market — the shortlist worth starting from.

Value

Combined probability per $1k of DFS salary. Answers "cheap enough to be worth the odds?" rather than "most likely to score".

TD

Touchdowns the player actually scored, once the game is final. Blank before kickoff.

The evidence columns

Redzone Info

Grade rates the player's redzone role 0–100. DEF Rank is the opponent's redzone defense against this position, 1–32, where a high number means they concede. L2 / L4 / L8 are redzone touches (rushes + targets) over the last 2, 4 and 8 games. RZVal divides recent redzone work by the Vegas price — low is good, it means the usage isn't priced in.

Splits Info

IN/OUT and H/A show how this player's scoring shifts indoors vs outdoors and home vs away. GS grades game script — how they've done in games with odds like today's. IMP is the team's implied points, and IMP Diff how far that sits from their season average. More team points means more touchdowns to go round.

TDs/Game

Touchdowns per game over the last 4, 8 and 16 games, and the full season. The season figure is the baseline; the shorter windows show which way the role is trending.

NET DEF vs Pos / PosDepth

Defensive rankings adjusted for the quality of opponents each defense has faced, so a soft schedule doesn't flatter them. vs Pos is the position generally; vs PosDepth narrows it to the player's depth slot — the WR1 and the WR3 face very different coverage.

POS

Position plus depth (QB1, WR2, TE1…). Depth is coloured too: a starting role is green, a deep bench role red.

Getting around

• Click any column header to sort; click again to reverse. In card view use the Sort dropdown, since cards have no headers to click.
• The Table / Card toggle switches layouts. Card view condenses each column group into a chip — hover one to see the full breakdown.
• All Games vs Selected Slate controls whether you're looking at the whole week or just the games in your DFS slate.
• Filters holds the salary and position-depth sliders. Active filters show as chips beside the controls — click a chip's X to clear just that one.
• The two charts at the top show the ten highest-probability players by Vegas and by LineStar. Where the lists differ is usually the interesting part.

Odds move through the day as books adjust and injury news lands. The report refreshes with them — the timestamp beside the page title tells you how current the numbers are.