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MLB Dinger Report

Home Run Predictions Today's top home-run plays · Updated {{readableTime}}

See which MLB hitters are most likely to homer today, ranked by hit probability with Vegas HR odds, ballpark factors, and pitcher matchups.

HOME RUN ODDS (Vegas)

Sportsbooks give Kyle Schwarber the shortest home run price on the September 7, 2026 MLB slate at +222, an implied 31% chance to go deep. 25 hitters are priced at an implied 15% or better.

  • Kyle Schwarber is +222 to hit a home run today, an implied 31% chance.
  • Kazuma Okamoto is +308 to hit a home run today, an implied 25% chance.
  • Kyle Stowers is +326 to hit a home run today, an implied 24% chance.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. is +336 to hit a home run today, an implied 23% chance.
  • Juan Soto is +336 to hit a home run today, an implied 23% chance.
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong is +352 to hit a home run today, an implied 22% chance.
  • Bryce Harper is +356 to hit a home run today, an implied 22% chance.
  • Ketel Marte is +356 to hit a home run today, an implied 22% chance.
  • Manny Machado is +365 to hit a home run today, an implied 22% chance.
  • Jackson Merrill is +365 to hit a home run today, an implied 22% chance.
  • Max Muncy is +375 to hit a home run today, an implied 21% chance.
  • Pete Alonso is +373 to hit a home run today, an implied 21% chance.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is +384 to hit a home run today, an implied 21% chance.
  • JJ Bleday is +385 to hit a home run today, an implied 21% chance.
  • Kody Clemens is +390 to hit a home run today, an implied 20% chance.
  • Sal Stewart is +391 to hit a home run today, an implied 20% chance.
  • Rafael Devers is +394 to hit a home run today, an implied 20% chance.
  • Carter Jensen is +395 to hit a home run today, an implied 20% chance.
  • Jackson Chourio is +399 to hit a home run today, an implied 20% chance.
  • Elly De La Cruz is +405 to hit a home run today, an implied 20% chance.
  • George Springer is +404 to hit a home run today, an implied 20% chance.
  • Salvador Perez is +408 to hit a home run today, an implied 20% chance.
  • Eugenio Suarez is +408 to hit a home run today, an implied 20% chance.
  • CJ Abrams is +409 to hit a home run today, an implied 20% chance.
  • Griffin Conine is +412 to hit a home run today, an implied 20% chance.
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BEST CONDITIONS (Park + Weather)
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The Dinger Report pulls every input behind a hitter's home-run chance into one row per batter: their own power profile, the starter and bullpen they'll face, the ballpark, and the weather.

Every red/green color is from the batter's point of view. Green is good for the hitter, red is bad — including on the pitcher and ballpark columns, where a "good" number means good for the batter, not for the pitcher.
The four boards up top
  • Dingers — everyone who has already gone yard on this slate, most home runs first.
  • LineStar Edge — batters whose LineStar HR odds beat the Vegas number by at least a full point. Players with no real posted line are left out, since the gap would be meaningless.
  • Hottest Players — who is hot right now. A streak is 3+ games scoring 25% or more above the player's fantasy average (minimum 9 FP), and it ends after two straight duds.
  • Best Conditions — ballpark and weather ranked for both home runs and runs, split by batting stance.

Click any row on those boards to filter the report down to that player, ballpark, or stance. The "Only…" links narrow the whole table at once.

What the columns cover
Batter Info
Batting order, position, DFS salary, and projected plate appearances — more trips to the plate means more chances to run into one.
Batter Stats
Isolated power over the last 150 games, both overall and split against the starter's handedness, plus lineup protection and the last two weeks of hard-contact rate and exit velocity.
Dinger Odds
The Vegas HR price, LineStar's own number, the difference between them, a salary-adjusted value figure, and home runs actually hit once the game is under way.
Pitcher Stats
The starter's ground-ball-to-fly-ball tendency as a 0–100 rating (higher means more balls in the air, which favors the hitter), their ISO splits, the bullpen's ISO splits, and the real batter-versus-pitcher history.
Conditions
Ballpark grades for home runs and for runs on a 0–100 scale, and a weather grade where 50 is neutral and anything higher helps the batter.
Batter Dinger Data
Games since the last home run, the player's typical gap between them, and whether that gap has now been exceeded.
Batter Streak Data
How long this player's hot streaks usually last, how deep into one they are now, a 0–100 streakiness rating, and how hot they are at this moment. Streaky players tend to out-score their average by a wide margin while running hot.
Getting around
  • Switch between the table and card layouts with the view buttons in the toolbar.
  • Sort from any column header or the Sort menu; the arrow beside it flips direction.
  • Hover a column header to see its full definition.
  • Click a batter or pitcher name to open their player profile.
  • Active filters show up as chips in the toolbar — click one to clear it.
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